Unless an unexpected turn of events occurs—i.e., Biden steps down and the Democrats rally behind a candidate—we are heading towards another four years with Donald J. Trump at the helm of the world’s greatest power. In 2016, one could think—be deluded, really—that he would change for the better, that he would act in the interests of the American nation. After witnessing the chaos he has sown during his four years in power, there is no longer any doubt: the only interests that matter are his own.
How Trump perceives America
Before delving into Trump’s potential policies, it’s worth considering how he perceives today’s United States. According to his website, freedom of speech is no longer allowed, crime is more widespread than ever, and terrorists are invading the southern border. The American nation would even be hostile to freedom, liberty, and faith.
Internationally, he believes Biden has allowed Russia to invade Ukraine, China to threaten Taiwan, and Iran to build a nuclear weapon. All these threats were present during his own presidency, but obviously he doesn’t mention that.
According to Trump, the « corrupt » government (his words) has destroyed the country. This is a pessimistic view of America, never before expressed by a president or presidential candidate in the nation’s history.
In reality, what he observes and deplores is the decline of white male supremacy in America. He and many of his constituents simply do not tolerate women, Blacks, Hispanics, and LGBTQ+ individuals taking up more space in society.
So what does Trump want to do to address these alleged problems? What is his agenda, hidden or admitted? What will he do to « Make America Great Again »? Based on his first term and his policy statements, we can anticipate the following.
Using state agencies for personal gain
For a man so concerned about the state of his nation, it’s likely that one of his first actions in office will be to target his political opponents. He has repeatedly threatened on his Truth Social network to use state powers to investigate the Biden presidency, to indict him, subject him to FBI raids, and even send him to prison. His threats have extended to senators, judges, and members of the Biden family. Essentially, Trump will use the Department of Justice for personal vendettas; it’s in the playbook of any good dictator. This is contrary to the deep-seated belief that the law should not be used for partisan ends.
Even more frightening is that following the recent judgment (Trump vs the United States), he will be able to use state agencies for any whim that comes to mind, without risk of judicial prosecution, since the Supreme Court has granted him immunity if he acts within the official functions dictated by his presidency.
It’s the economy, stupid!
Economically, we can expect high tariffs on foreign exports and further tax cuts for the wealthiest. One might rightly wonder why many Americans support reducing taxes for the rich? There are two reasons. First, it’s rooted in the famous American Dream: the average American firmly believes that one day they will be at the top of the pyramid and will benefit from tax cuts. Second, many Americans still believe in trickle-down economics. This theory holds that economic and fiscal benefits given to businesses and the rich gradually trickle down to benefit all of society, including the lower classes. Despite being refuted by numerous studies, this theory, popularized under Reagan, is still blindly adhered to by many Republicans.
Abortion
Although likely fundamentally pro-choice, Trump will be pushed by his very conservative base to further roll back women’s rights to control their own bodies. Project 2025, an ultra-conservative agenda concocted by a crowd of Trump supporters, calls for the cessation of the sale of abortion pills. The same project, officially disavowed by Trump, calls for the firing of thousands of civil servants, expansion of presidential power, dismantling of the Department of Education, banning pornography, and much more. A true conservative agenda as his base likes it.
Trump’s fascination with the military apparatus
Domestically, Trump has said he intends to deploy the National Guard to restore law and order in cities—considered pro-Democrat, it should be noted. One might think these are just words, but Trump deployed troops in 2020, notably in Portland and Washington DC, without state/federal district authorization. Considering pre-existing tensions in American society, this scenario is chilling.
Internationally, while Trump has been reluctant to use US forces abroad, he has said repeatedly that he would use the military to counter illegal immigration at the southern border and to tackle drug cartels. These are not traditional roles for the military; military authorities are reluctant to combat illegal immigration and drugs because they are not trained for it. The risks of mistakes are high; when you walk around with a hammer in hand, the world looks like a nail. This is the flip side when military options are prioritized.
New allies
Trump views NATO, which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, as a parasitic relationship where one organism, the parasite, lives off another host organism, from which it benefits without providing significant benefits in return. For him, all that matters is the financial contribution of the Allies. He has even recently said he would encourage Russia to « do whatever the hell they want » to any NATO country that doesn’t pay enough.
Regarding Russia, Trump has said he intends to reach an agreement with Putin regarding Ukraine. What does that actually mean? Essentially, it means he will significantly reduce aid to Ukraine and force Zelensky to the negotiating table to concede territories to Russia. What Trump fails to understand, despite it being obvious, is that afterward, Putin will be free to act as he pleases to slowly but surely annex the rest of Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions will then turn to neighbouring countries. What Trump calls a « deal » is actually a policy of appeasement, much like British Prime Minister Chamberlain practiced with Hitler in 1938, with all the devastating consequences that followed.
The dictators of the world (Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-Un) but also the « strongmen » (Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, and even Narendra Modi in India) will rightly conclude that they can pursue their own ambitions without much risk of American intervention. They understand that everything is personal for Trump, so they will try to develop friendly relations with the President, which should be fairly easy since Trump has long expressed admiration for authoritarian leaders. It’s going to be a spectacle.
Chaos, more chaos
Looking at Trump’s first term, it’s difficult to identify a clear policy or a firm ideology. Trump is an opportunist who thrives in chaos. In the White House, as in various departments and embassies, no one knew which way to turn. This is what Trump enjoys, and it’s one of the reasons he always makes headlines: you never know what to expect from him. It might have worked with his businesses—I doubt it—but it certainly isn’t a winning strategy at the helm of a country, especially not one with as important ambitions and duties as the United States of America.
We must pay attention to the words Trump uses. Even his most abhorrent jokes contain a kernel of truth and are ultimately meant to legitimize a message that initially seems abhorrent. Trump has the makings of a dictator. When he encounters resistance from Congress or the judiciary, he is likely to use the streets to exert pressure on the various branches of power. Hopefully, American institutions will be strong enough to withstand his daily assaults over the next four years.
